Agenda Item 4 - UGB Rulemaking <br />December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Meeting <br />Page 9 of 56 <br />V. RESEARCH TO INFORM THE NEW SIMPLIFIED UGB PROCESS <br />ORS 197A requires that the "ranges" and other factors in the rules must be based on information <br />that would be provided through new research into statewide development patterns and related <br />matters. In May 2014, the department contracted with the University of Oregon Community <br />Service Center (UO) to conduct most of this research. In January 2015 the department contracted <br />with ECONorthwest and the University of Oregon to conduct additional research regarding long <br />term trends. <br />This research included the following (wording of the bulleted items below that is directly from <br />the requirements of ORS 197A is in italics): <br />The relation between population and employment growth and the rate and trends of land <br />utilization in the recent past in the applicable major region of the state. The University of <br />Oregon's Community Service Center completed a research report April 2015, which <br />provided important data and information on this topic. The research report analyzed tax <br />assessor data from most of Oregon's cities and counties, and provided useful and relevant <br />information on a number of topics, such as trends in densities of residential development, <br />current densities of different types of residential development, calculations of employees <br />per acre for existing types of employment lands within the state, and the percentage of <br />city territory devoted to public uses and public infrastructure such as streets. The research <br />findings have provoked much discussion with the RAC and have provided valuable input <br />into the creation of appropriate ranges for cities to use within these rules. The research <br />provided the basis for the low and medium density residential density ranges in proposed <br />OAR 660-038-0050(l), Table 2. It also provided the basis for the "public land" <br />assumptions associated with residential development contained in OAR 660-038-0050(2) <br />and for employment land in OAR 660-038-0120(1)(a)(B). <br />The population and employment growth that has occurred on similarly situated lands <br />through development and redevelopment. UO's report includes detailed information <br />comparing development densities and efficiencies amongst cities throughout the state <br />(outside of Metro). As a general finding, the report determined that there exist few <br />regional variations in density and efficiency that are statistically significant among <br />Oregon cities, except minor differences for Eastern Oregon. Instead, the report found that <br />many indicators of development densities and efficiencies are more directly correlated <br />with city population, regardless of the location of the city. The research provided the <br />basis for the "ranges of numbers" for low and medium density residential development <br />that are proposed in OAR 660-038-0050(l) Table 2, which require larger cities to <br />forecast higher densities of future residential development than smaller cities. <br />• The median rate of redevelopment and infall for cities with a population of 10,000 or <br />more that are outside of the boundaries ofMetro. UO prepared a supplemental report that <br />attempted to determine measurable rates of redevelopment. However, that research was <br />inconclusive as the information is not readily available because most Oregon cities do not <br />systematically collect information on rates of redevelopment within their boundaries. <br />