Agenda Item 4 - UGB Rulemaking <br />December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Meeting <br />Page 10 of 56 <br />The development capacity forecast for the lands over the planning period, based on an <br />evaluation of how similarly situated lands have, or have not, developed over time. UO's <br />report provides useful information for the department to use in proposing various <br />"ranges" that cities must use to forecast the long term density of residential and <br />employment lands that many be added to an urban growth boundary under the proposed <br />new simplified process. <br />Significant changes occurring or expected to occur in the markets for urban land uses in <br />that major region of the state. UO's report included a literature review of demographics <br />and market trends and concluded that predicted long term changes (such as decreased <br />household size) are addressed in the proposed methods and "paths" in the draft rules. <br />For lands considered for addition to UGBs, evaluation of how similarly situated lands <br />have, or have not, developed over time. UO prepared a supplemental report that analyzed <br />past rates of development of "rural residential lands" that were brought into UGBs from <br />1999 to 2012. The information within that report, which is based upon tax assessor data <br />from a significant sample of Oregon cities and counties, has been reflected in the <br />proposed rules for forecasting the development capacity of lands considered for addition <br />to UGBs.S <br />All of this research was used to inform the new UGB rules. In some cases, researchers could not <br />determine certain aspects that were required by ORS 197A. This report notes those gaps. All of <br />the research that was conducted under this project is provided on DLCD's website: <br />http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/Pages/UGB-Streamlining.asp gResearch. <br />VI. INTENT OF THE SIMPLIFIED PROCESS <br />ORS 197A.302 indicates that "the purpose of ORS 197A.300 to 197A.325 is to direct the Land <br />Conservation and Development Commission to develop and adopt simplified methods for a city <br />that is outside Metro to evaluate or amend the urban growth boundary of the city." This statute <br />goes on to indicate a list of intents or outcomes that should be achieved by the new rules. These <br />assert fundamental principles that the commission should consider in drafting these rules. <br />The statute states that the commission should design the methods to: <br />(1) Become, as a result of reduced costs, complexity and time, the methods that are used by <br />most cities with growing populations to manage the urban growth boundaries of the cities; <br />(2) Encourage, to the extent practicable given market conditions, the development of urban <br />areas in which individuals desire to live and work and that are increasingly efficient in terms <br />of land uses and in terms of public facilities and services; <br />s These research findings are reflected in the proposed OAR 660-038-0160(6), which allows cities to assume that <br />rural residential lots and parcels less than two acres in size will have a reduced additional development capacity <br />when brought into a UGB. <br />