June 16, 2017 <br />X. Vision for Future Development <br />Page 15 <br />Each of the above issues are important, but in the aggregate they are profound, and raise <br />doubts about the validity of the data, assumptions and policies in Envision Eugene. <br />The City's end game strategy for Envision Eugene appears to be an attempt to meet the <br />technical requirements for 20 year planning without fully addressing the fundamental future <br />needs of Eugene. The City asserts that it will run out of vacant and partially vacant MDR and <br />HDR land supply during the 20 year period, and claims that there will be a deficit of such land <br />in the amount of 1,617 unit capacity. Yet there does not seem to be any significant concrete <br />element in Envision Eugene which "creates" MDR and HDR land for the future. The City also <br />asserts that there is a "deficit of commercial land" in the City, 15 without an apparent <br />comprehensive plan to "obtain" more commercial land. <br />The City plans to meet the perceived multifamily land deficit through redevelopment <br />downtown and through increasing MDR/R2 density requirements. However, at the end of the <br />20 year period, Eugene still will be without any vacant or partially vacant MDR or HDR <br />residential land supply, if the City's analysis is to be believed. I have not seen any plans to <br />re-designate lands in the Metro Plan in order to create more MDR and HDR land supply. <br />Eventually, the City needs to re-designate LDR or MDR, and other land, as MDR or HDR <br />along major corridors and in areas where other MDR or HDR land is located. In order to do <br />this, the City may need to modestly expand the UGB to include more LDR land to make up <br />for the lost LDR land. Instead, the City did the opposite by re-designating 1,833 du MDR land <br />to LDR land (primarily in the Crow and Gilham areas). <br />The City also needs to more fully consider future development beyond the 20 years (only <br />15.5 years remaining) in order to guide its 20 year planning. The Eugene and Springfield <br />metro areas are divided by 1-5. Presumably, both UGBs eventually will reach 1-5, with <br />Eugene's UGB extending East to 1-5 where it does not currently meet 1-5. The City should be <br />planning expansion of the UGB towards 1-5. These areas, and others, outside of the Eugene <br />and Springfield UGBs, are included in the Metro Plan. <br />If such expansion is not planned, with some expansion occurring during this planning period, <br />then the area may be developed, without City control, in a manner not ideal for Eugene's <br />overall needs. Residential development in those areas may occur, outside of Eugene's UGB, <br />at a much lower density than Eugene will need to meet future planning goals. The City has <br />already purchased land for parks in this area, outside of the UGB (e.g., Susan Arlie Park-516 <br />acres). Planning for City parks outside of the UGB should be accompanied by planning for <br />other development within the area. <br />15 April 20, 2016 Memo from Anne Davies to the Planning Commission (MA 15-3) at 3; Exhibit 5 <br />