I relative dearth of 20+ acre sites situated in close proximity <br />2 to the I-5 transportation corridor. <br />3 "Scenario B of the REA includes three sub-scenarios, one which <br />4 assumes 10% regional large site industrial capture, one which <br />5 assumes 20% regional large site industrial capture and one that <br />6 assumes a fairly aggressive 30% regional large site industrial <br />7 capture. <br />8 "Neither scenario presented in the Regional Economic Analysis is <br />9 expressly rejected by the City of Coburg in this addendum. At <br />10 their cores both scenarios are generally consistent with the primary <br />11 assumptions of the current Urbanization Study. Table A.17 <br />12 outlines scenarios details, including total regional large site <br />13 acreage demand, an assumed vacancy percentage, and local <br />14 industrial land supply (from the buildable lands analysis). <br />15 CC * * * * * <br />16 "All of the scenarios evaluated support the continued need for a <br />17 UGB expansion of at least 40 acres to as much as 195 acres based <br />18 on forecast need for large industrial sites within Coburg and the <br />19 Central Lane County region." Record 305-306 (footnotes omitted). <br />20 The 2010 study had predicted a total of 247 industrial jobs and 368 commercial <br />21 jobs, totaling 615 new jobs over twenty years. The 2014 Update includes the <br />22 following observation: <br />23 "If Coburg's job growth rate were adjusted upwards to reflect the <br />24 updated overall growth expectations for Lane County * * the <br />25 employment gain within Coburg's UGB would double from the <br />26 previous projection of an added 615 jobs to 1,292 net added jobs <br />27 over a 20-year planning horizon. It is noted by LCOG staff that a <br />28 truly sector specific forecast was not possible given the <br />29 information that economist Eric Hovee was provided. The figure <br />30 1,292 based on Lane County's AAGR [average annual growth <br />31 rate] reflects an estimate assuming the highest realization of <br />32 Coburg matching Lane County growth rates. That number (1,292), <br />Page 51 <br />