December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Salem <br />Agenda Item 4, Attachment A <br />Proposed New Rules to Implement ORS 197A Public Draft 3 - November 23, 2015 <br />1 (b) Must provide within its UGB sufficient buildable lands and other development capacity <br />2 to accommodate the growth in employment that is forecast to occur over a 14-year period <br />3 and plan those lands as required by OAR 660-038-0180. <br />4 (2) The city must forecast employment growth within the UGB for a 14-year period from the <br />5 year in which the UGB analysis was initiated. As provided in ORS 197A.310(4) and <br />6 197A.312(4), employment growth may be forecast based on either: <br />7 (a) The population growth forecast for the city in the most recent final forecast issued by the <br />8 Portland State University Population Research Center under ORS 195.033 applying the <br />9 requirements of OAR 660-038-0100, or <br />10 (b) The most recent long term employment growth forecast issued by the Oregon <br />11 Employment Department (OED) for the applicable region, applying the requirements of <br />12 OAR 660-038-0110. <br />13 OAR 660-038-0100 <br />14 Forecast Employment Growth Based on Population Growth <br />15 To forecast 14-year employment growth based on the PSU long term forecast of population <br />16 growth, a city must: <br />17 (1) Determine the forecast population of the city's UGB for the 14-year period from the year in <br />18 which the UGB analysis was initiated based on the most recent forecast issued by the Portland <br />19 State University Population Research Center. <br />20 (2) Determine the current population of the UGB using the most recent population estimate <br />21 issued by the Portland State University Population Research Center. <br />22 (3) Determine the rate of population growth for the city over the 14-year period based on <br />23 sections (1) and (2). <br />24 (4) Using Table 6, determine the current number of "commercial" and "industrial" jobs in the <br />25 UGB, based on the definitions in OAR 660-038-0010. <br />26 (5) To forecast the number of new commercial and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the <br />27 UGB for the 14-year planning period, the city must: <br />28 (a) Multiply the number of commercial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (4) <br />29 by the rate of population growth rate determined in section (3), and <br />30 (b) Multiply the number of industrial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (4) by <br />31 the rate of population growth determined in section (3). <br />11/23/2015 3:43:00 PM <br />http://intranet.dlcd.state.or.us/projects/UGBRAC/Reference Documents/660-038_3rdPublicDraft_2015-11-20.docx v2.0 <br />14 <br />