June 16, 2017 <br />To: Eugene City Council and Lane County Board of Commissioners <br />From: Bill Aspegren <br />Subject: Testimony for the June 27, 2017 Joint Public Hearing of the Eugene City Council and <br />the Lane County board of Commissioners - Specifically Ordinance #2 (Land for Housing) Multi- <br />Family Problems <br />Over two years ago both the Eugene City Council and Eugene's Planning Division were told of <br />conflicts between the multi-family growth plan and what was happening in the community. No <br />action was taken to correct the problem. Excuses were made and the problem was ignored. <br />Work continued, without a change in direction, until today you have before you a multi-family <br />growth plan that bears no resemblance to reality. Even worse, the planning staff is <br />recommending changes to minimum density in R-2 residential zones based on inaccurate <br />information. This is to help offset an alleged deficit of 1,600 multi-family units. There is no deficit <br />(see endnote'), and no need for a code amendment. <br />Problems <br />Simply stated the growth plan's multi-family estimates have been grossly underestimated'. <br />Currently, between 75 and 80% of the projected 20-year need has been built, is being built or is <br />planned and the 20-year growth plan is only five years old. <br />How did this occur? Both data and assumptions used by the land model are incorrectz. This has <br />the potential to affect more than just multi-family projections. <br />Questions <br />Since we are already five years into the proposed plan, you would think there would be a <br />reasonable correlation between multi-family projections and actual experience. There isn't, <br />which raises many questions. <br />• Is it just incorrect data and assumptions? <br />• Are economic conditions creating more renters? <br />• Is the housing mix incorrect? <br />• Have multi-family units been overbuilt? <br />• How are lands for employment affected? <br />The problems with multi-family projections is a symptom of greater problems with the overall <br />growth plan. It raises the question of whether or not any of the projections can be trusted if the <br />data and assumptions are wrong. <br />1 Based on Lloyd Helikson's detailed analysis and testimony of multi-family housing development since July 2012 to <br />date. Submitted for review by the joint planning commissions and updated for the Eugene City Council and Lane <br />County Commissioners June 27, 2017 meeting. <br />2 See my testimony dated March 2, 2017 submitted for the joint planning commission's public hearing, especially <br />section titled Plan Problems. <br />