economic slowdown and recession. The slowdown has continued through <br />2012, although the national housing market shows signs of recovery. <br />Figure 5 shows the housing market cycles for the last four decades, from <br />the 1970's through the 2000's. The housing downturn and recovery in the <br />2000's is weaker than any housing cycle since the 1970's. Most notably, <br />housing starts have been below 1 million units per year since 2009, with <br />little of the rebound present after housing troughs in other decades. <br />Figure 5. Housing market cycles, housing starts (in millions), 1970's to <br />2000's <br />2.5 <br />2.a <br />1.5 <br />1.0 <br />D.S <br />a.G <br />Ln go t-- ~ c <br />en ,"T, M {j! 65 ?3 CSS QS <br />19 0 Tri3u-ri • On <br />t <br />v'7 L"11 u r. <br />O C] G C <br />~"v N CV ~'~l <br />Source: The State of The Nation's Housing, 2012, The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, <br />p. 8. http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/son/index.htm <br />From 2000 to 2005, housing starts and manufactured home placements <br />appeared to have been roughly in line with household demand. In 2005, <br />with demand for homes falling but construction coming off record levels, <br />the surplus of both new and existing homes was much higher than in <br />recent years. Between July 2006 and January 2009, the number of new <br />homes for sale fell by 41 % and demand dropped even faster. The supply <br />of new homes for sale reached 12.4 months, the highest in U.S. history. <br />Home sales remained lackluster through most of 2011, but increased <br />strongly in late 2011 and early 2012. The supply of new homes for sale <br />Page 38 ECONorthwest Part 11 - Eugene Housing Needs Analysis <br />