This data suggests that vacancy rates in Eugene have varied over the 1990 <br />to 2011 period on an annual basis. In reality, vacancy rates are cyclical and <br />vary across the year. For examples, vacancy rates tend to be lower in <br />September, at the start of the University of Oregon school year, and higher <br />during the summer, when the University of Oregon is not in session. <br />Up until 2006, Duncan and Brown, a Eugene real estate analysis firm, <br />produced reports about housing rentals and vacancies in the Eugene- <br />Springfield region. Fall vacancy rates for apartments varied between <br />about 0.5% to about 5.2% between 1990 and 2006. Vacancy rates in <br />Eugene's neighborhoods also varied by area, with vacancy rates generally <br />lower near the University and higher further away from the University.15 <br />The analysis assumes a 5.0% average vacancy rate in Eugene for the 2012 <br />to 2032 period, based on recent vacancy rates. <br />3.1.5 Forecast of new housing units, 2012-2032 <br />The preceding analysis leads to a forecast of new housing units likely to <br />be built in Eugene during the 2012 to 2032 period and outlines the <br />building blocks of a housing demand analysis. Table 10 shows an estimate <br />of needed housing in Eugene for the 2012 to 2032 period, based on recent <br />data. The projection is based on the following assumptions: <br />• Population will increase by 33,778 people from 2012 to 2032, as <br />forecast in Lane County's adopted population forecast. <br />• About 4.6% percent of the new population or 1,554 people will live <br />in group quarters, based on the share of population in group <br />quarters from the 2010 Census and the assumption that the share of <br />population in group quarters will not change. <br />• The average household size will be 2.24 people per household, <br />based on information from the 2010 Census. <br />• Vacancy rates for all housing types will be 5.0%, based on recent <br />vacancy rates in Eugene. <br />Based on the assumptions shown in Table 10, Eugene will need 15,105 <br />new dwelling units to accommodate population growth between 2012 and <br />2032, not including new group quarters. The results indicate that Eugene <br />will need to issue permits for 719 new dwelling units annually during the <br />planning period. This figure is about the same as the 736 dwelling units <br />15 Duncan & Brown Apartment Report. Fall 2000-Fall 2006. Daniel J. Puffinburger, Corey S. <br />Dingman, Duncan & Brown Real Estate Analysts <br />Part 11 - Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page 35 <br />