PART II. EUGENE HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS <br />This document presents a housing needs analysis (HNA) for the City of <br />Eugene. It is part of the Envision Eugene / Residential Land Supply <br />Study, a larger project to determine whether Eugene has enough land to <br />accommodate the City's need for housing through 2032. <br />This HNA includes the following chapters and sections: <br />1 Introduction 7 <br />1.1 Framework for a Housing Needs Analysis 8 <br />2 Historical and Recent Development Trends 18 <br />2.1 Residential development trends .......................................................................20 <br />2.2 Trends in housing mix ...........................................................................................24 <br />2.3 Trends in Tenure .....................................................................................................26 <br />2.4 Density ........................................................................................................................27 <br />3 Housing Demand and Need 30 <br />3.1 Step 1: Project number of new housing units needed in the next 20 <br />years ............................................................................................................................31 <br />3.2 Step 2: Identify relevant national, state, and local demographic and <br />economic trends and factors that may affect the 20-year projection of <br />housing type mix .....................................................................................................37 <br />3.3 Step 3: Describe the demographic characteristics of the population <br />and, if possible, housing trends that relate to demand for different <br />types of housing .......................................................................................................53 <br />3.4 Step 4: Determine the types of housing that are likely to be affordable <br />to the projected population based on household income 76 <br />3.5 Implications of changes in demographic trends for future housing <br />need .............................................................................................................................92 <br />3.6 Steps 5 and 6: Estimate the number of additional needed units by <br />structure type and determine needed density .........................................103 <br />4 Residential land sufficiency .........................................................................117 <br />4.1 Residential development capacity on vacant and partially vacant land <br />117 <br />4.2 Residential development capacity of land on redevelopable lots...... 144 <br />4.3 Summary of residential development capacity .........................................147 <br />4.4 Residential land sufficiency .............................................................................148 <br />5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................149 <br />Part 11 - Eugene Housing Needs Analysis ECONorthwest Page i <br />