6.1.2 Commercial Land Demand and Sufficiency <br />The forecast of commercial land demand is based on information from the <br />employment forecast (Table 23), the analysis of commercial employment <br />need for new land (Table 27), and the analysis of employment densities <br />(Table 26). <br />The first step in determining land need is to estimate the number of <br />commercial jobs that will not require new (vacant) employment land. This <br />estimate is derived by first establishing the number of new commercial <br />employees and the number of those employees that will locate in non- <br />employment designated lands (sub-section 6.1.1.2) and in existing built <br />space (Table 24), then subtracting the latter number from the former. Table <br />27 presents this estimate of commercial employment that will not require <br />vacant employment land. Table 27 shows: <br />New employment. Table 23 shows that Eugene will add 22,026 <br />employees in commercial and retail sectors over the 20-year <br />planning period. <br />Employment locating in non-employment designations. The <br />analysis in sub-section 6.1.1.2 indicates that 15% of Eugene's new <br />commercial employment (3,304 employees) will locate in non- <br />employment plan designations, mostly on land designated for <br />residential uses. Ten percent of these employees will locate in <br />residential land designations zoned for neighborhood commercial <br />uses and 5% will locate in residences as home occupations.67 <br />Employment in existing built space. Table 24 shows that 7,705 <br />commercial employees and 1,187 retail employees will be fit into <br />existing office and retail spaces or vacant commercial spaces. This <br />estimate is based on the number of commercial jobs lost between <br />2006 and 2010, during the recent recession. This analysis assumes <br />that Eugene has enough underutilized or vacant commercial space <br />to accommodate these employees. <br />67 These assumptions are based on analysis of the Oregon Employment Department's Quarterly <br />Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data presented in sub-section 6.1.1.2. <br />Page 112 ECONorthwest Part 11 - Eugene Economic Opportunities Analysis <br />