6.1.3.2 Estimate Amount of Land and Sites Needed <br />This sub-section estimates industrial land and sites needed for: (1) sites <br />smaller than 10 acres, and (2) sites 10 acres or larger. These estimates build <br />from the forecast in Table 30. <br />For sites smaller than ten acres, Table 31 estimates land needed for <br />employment growth on industrial land. Table 29 makes the following <br />assumptions: <br />Employment in existing built space. Eugene lost about 6,334 <br />industrial jobs between 2006 and 2010. Since the majority of <br />Eugene's industrial jobs are located on sites smaller than 10 acres, it <br />is reasonable to assume that most of these jobs were previously <br />located on sites in this size class. Industrial firms are less efficient at <br />reusing existing built spaces than commercial firms, given the <br />special needs of industrial business processes. As a result, we <br />assume the capacity of existing built space is 55% of the <br />employment lost over the four-year period (3,454 jobs). <br />Employment density. The estimate of employment density for <br />industrial jobs on sites smaller than 10 acres builds from the <br />analysis of historical employment densities shown in Table 25 and <br />Table 26. The average industrial employment density in industrial <br />plan designations was 13 employees per acre (EPA). The range of <br />densities in sample industrial areas was 3 to 5 EPA in the North <br />Eugene Heavy Industrial area and Enid Drive to 17 to 19 EPA in <br />the West Eugene Light Industrial area and Chad Drive. <br />Considering this data, it is reasonable to assume that new industrial <br />employment will be between 6 and 14 EPA. For estimating <br />employment land needs on sites smaller than 10 acres, we use an <br />assumption of 10 EPA, the mid-point between 6 and 14 EPA. <br />Table 31 shows that Eugene will need land for 2,829 new industrial jobs, <br />based on subtracting the jobs in existing built space (3,454) from all new <br />jobs (6,283). Eugene will need 283 suitable gross acres of industrial land on <br />sites smaller than 10 acres, based on the assumption of 10 employees per <br />acre (2,829 employees divided by 10). <br />Page 120 ECONorthwest Part 11 - Eugene Economic Opportunities Analysis <br />