6.1.3 Industrial Land Demand and Sufficiency <br />The forecast of industrial land demand starts on information from the <br />employment forecast (Table 23). The forecast of industrial land then <br />divides industrial employment growth into categories based on site size: <br />smaller than 10 acres, 10 to 19.99 acres, 20 to 49.99 acres, 50 to 74.99 acres, <br />and 75 to 100 acres before applying the employees-per-acre divisor. <br />This sub-section is divided into three steps: <br />Allocate industrial employment by site size, divides forecasted <br />industrial employment growth into site sizes ranging from less <br />than 10 acres to sites of 75 to 100 acres; <br />Estimate the number of sites needed, uses employment density <br />(EPA) and site size assumptions to forecast the number of sites <br />needed in each size range; and <br />• Industrial land sufficiency, compares the supply of industrial land <br />to the demand for industrial land by site size. <br />6.1.3.1 Allocate Industrial Employment by Site Size <br />Based on our analysis of recent industrial development in Eugene and the <br />Eugene area, on information provided by Business Oregon and the Lane <br />Metro Partnership, and trends that inform the City's expectations for <br />future economic growth opportunities, we assume that the most <br />significant percentage of new employees will continue to be located on <br />small (less than 10 acre) sites. Both trends and City policies indicate <br />significant growth in the types of industries that are likely to locate on <br />industrial sites smaller than 10 acres, including (but not limited to): small- <br />scale manufacturing (such as small food and beverage manufacturers, <br />small biomedical firms, or small wood products manufacturers), <br />construction companies, or small-scale warehouse and distribution firms. <br />This sub-section presents the forecast of industrial growth over the 20- <br />year period by size of site, ranging from sites smaller than 10 acres to sites <br />larger than 75 acres. Historical consumption patterns over the last 20 years <br />and the fact that several large companies have left Eugene in search of <br />larger sites suggests a strong likelihood that additional large lot industrial <br />development would have occurred in Eugene in the last 20 years, had <br />there been suitable sites. Since Eugene's job growth on large sites has been <br />constrained due to lack of available land, we must look to job growth and <br />land inventory statistics in comparable cities that have not had such <br />constraints. In Springfield, 33% of their industrial jobs are on sites larger <br />Page 116 ECONorthwest Part 11 - Eugene Economic Opportunities Analysis <br />