This forecast is quite optimistic in terms of the industrial job growth Eugene expects, compared <br />to other types of employment. In 2012, industrial sectors provided only 15% of Eugene's jobs. <br />Yet the forecast predicts that over the next 20 years, 31% of Eugene's job growth (11,423 out of <br />.36,688 new jobs) will be in industrial sectors. This is more than a two-fold increase from <br />Eugene's current employment mix. <br />The EOA's forecast for large-lot industrial growth is similarly ambitious, because it assumes that <br />significantly more jobs will locate on large sites than is currently the case. As shown by the <br />below Table 30 from page 119 of the EOA, 45% of Eugene's industrial growth is predicted to <br />occur on lots over 10 acres in size: <br />Table 30. Industrial employment forecast by site size, <br />Eugene 2012-2032 <br />Site size Percent of Number of <br />(Suitable Acres) New Jobs Jobs <br />Less than 10 acres <br />10 to 20 acres <br />20 to 50 acres <br />50 to 75 acres <br />55% <br />6,283 <br />12% <br />1,371 <br />12% <br />1,371 <br />11% <br />1,257 <br />75 acres and larger 10% 1,142 <br />Total 100% 11,423 <br />Source: City of Eugene Technical Resource Group review and analysis; <br />Calculations by ECONorthwest. <br />Put differently, the EOA predicts that over the next 20 years, Eugene will have extraordinary <br />growth of industrial jobs in general, with particularly robust growth on large sites. While this <br />forecast was being developed, we cautioned that it seemed unlikely to be realized within the 20- <br />year UGB planning period. The state's employment forecasts consistently predict that key <br />industrial sectors like manufacturing, wholesaling and warehousing will grow sluggishly in <br />comparison to sectors like health care, hospitality, education and business services. <br />As an example, see the attached 2014-2024 Oregon Employment Department jobs forecast for <br />Lane County. The five industrial categories (natural resources, construction, manufacturing, <br />wholesale trade, transportation, warehousing and utilities) are collectively predicted to add only <br />4,000 jobs during the 10-year forecast period, countywide. At this pace, even if Eugene captured <br />every industrial job in Lane County for the next 20 years, it would add only 8,000 jobs. That <br />capture rate seems unlikely, but as shown above, the EOA goes even further: it predicts that <br />Eugene will gain 11,423 industrial jobs, nearly 50% more than could reasonably be expected for <br />all of Lane County. Nearly half those new jobs are predicted to occur on large lots. <br />We cannot say that the proposed forecast would be impossible to achieve. However, it is so <br />ambitious that it could take several decades to be fully realized - longer than the 20-year UGB <br />planning period. Therefore, strong long-term protections are needed to ensure that any large lots <br />added to Eugene's UGB are protected, even if the EOA's forecast does not come to fruition. <br />2 <br />