December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Salem <br />Agenda Item 4, Attachment A <br />Proposed New Rules to Implement ORS 197A Public Draft 3 - November 23, 2015 <br />1 division, or if the city has evaluated the UGB need and land supply using this division and <br />2 determined that the UGB contains sufficient buildable land for a 14-year period, including a <br />3 supply that is serviceable for a seven-year period and a supply that can be serviceable for a 14- <br />4 year period. <br />5 (16) Beginning on or before January 1, 2023, the commission shall: <br />6 (a) Evaluate, every five years, the impact of this division on the population per square mile, <br />7 livability in the area, the provision and cost of urban facilities and services, the rate of <br />8 conversion of agriculture and forest lands and other considerations; <br />9 (b) Consider changes to the statewide land use planning goals or rules to address adverse <br />10 outcomes; and <br />11 (c) Make recommendations to the Legislative Assembly, as necessary, for statutory changes. <br />12 OAR 660-038-0030 <br />13 Residential Land Need <br />14 OAR 660-038-0030 through 660-038-0080 provides steps that a city must take to determine <br />15 residential land need over the 14-year planning period. <br />16 (1) A city that applies the UGB method in this division: <br />17 (a) Must forecast the amount of buildable lands that it will need for housing based on the <br />18 population forecast for the 14-year period commencing on the date it initiates and consistent <br />19 with OAR 660-038-0040 through OAR 660-038-0090, and <br />20 (b) Must provide within its UGB sufficient buildable lands and other development capacity, <br />21 for needed housing to accommodate the growth in population forecast to occur over a 14- <br />22 year period. <br />23 (2) The city must use the most recent final forecast issued by the Portland State University <br />24 Population Research Center under ORS 195.033 in effect at the time the city initiates a UGB <br />25 review to forecast the UGB population growth for a 14-year period. <br />26 (3) The city must subtract from the forecast population growth the number of persons projected <br />27 to live in group quarters in the UGB during the planning period. The city shall determine this <br />28 number by calculating the percentage of the city's population living in group quarters at the last <br />29 decennial United States Census and subtracting the same percentage from projected population <br />30 growth. For the purpose of this rule, "group quarters," as defined by the United States Census, <br />31 are places where people live or stay, in a group living arrangement, which is owned or managed <br />32 by an entity or organization providing housing or services for the residents. <br />11/23/2015 3:43:00 PM <br />http://intranet.dlcd.state.or.us/projects/UGBRAC/Reference Documents/660-038_3rdPublicDraft_2015-11-20.docx v2.0 <br />6 <br />