Agenda Item 4 - UGB Rulemaking <br />December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Meeting <br />Page 34 of 56 <br />that this difference was anticipated and discussed by the Design Team (for the new residential <br />and employment processes). The Design Team concluded that since the intent of the simplified <br />process is that it will be faster, cheaper and more insulated from appeal, many cities will <br />therefore opt for the new process. In part, this would be because cities are encouraged to look at <br />employment land needs on a more frequent basis than has occurred in the past under the <br />traditional method, since it would be faster and simpler. If cities update their UGBs more <br />frequently than they would under the traditional method, the differences in forecasts for 20-years <br />versus 14 years are not determinative. This alone may mitigate the perceived differences in the <br />two processes. <br />0090: Employment Land Need (Page 13) <br />General: This rule is a preamble to the six "employment path" rules that come after it. The rule <br />provides an overarching set of requirements repeating the general statutory requirements in ORS <br />197A for both large and small cities. In particular, sections (1) and (2) paraphrase the <br />requirements in ORS 197A: <br />Section (1) clarifies that the need for employment land is determined for a 14-year planning <br />period under this process. <br />Section (2) indicates that a city must forecast growth for the 14-year planning period beginning <br />the year the UGB analysis was initiated, and may use either the population based method or the <br />employment forecast method. <br />0100: Forecasting Employment Need Based on Forecast of Population Growth (Page 14) <br />Sections (1) through (7) of this rule provide a method for forecasting long term (14-year) <br />employment need based on the PSU population forecast for the UGB. A city must determine the <br />current relationship between jobs and population in the UGB. Under the method, the city must <br />assume that in fourteen years its current ratio of population-to-jobs, in the UGB, would be the <br />same as it is currently. Under the method, current jobs in the UGB (provided in Table 6) at the <br />time the city begins its analysis would be sorted into two categories (commercial and industrial). <br />These jobs (for each category) are simply multiplied by the forecast population growth rate. <br />Also, the method requires a 20% reduction of long term jobs, to reflect that 20% of jobs forecast <br />long term will occur on residential or other areas, as discussed in the overview above. <br />OAR 660-038-0110 <br />Forecast Employment Growth Based on Oregon Employment Department Forecast <br />As an alternative to the population-based method provided in rule 0100, discussed above, this <br />rule provides a way for cities to forecast 14-year employment growth based on the most recent <br />long-term job forecast issued by the Oregon Employment Department (OED). <br />Under section (1), the city must determine the number of "commercial" and "industrial" jobs <br />currently in the UGB as provided in Table 6. Then, in section (2), Using Table 7, the city must <br />