Agenda Item 4 - UGB Rulemaking <br />December 3-4, 2015 - LCDC Meeting <br />Page 20 of 56 <br />Section (16) repeats a provision from ORS 197A.305(5) requiring the commission to evaluate <br />these rules every five years to determine their impact on urban efficiency, farm and forest land <br />preservation, and the provision of urban facilities. <br />0030 - 0080: Residential Land Path (Page 6 - 13) <br />General: These six rules provide a process for determining if a city needs to add land to its UGB <br />during the 14-year planning period for residential development. These rules have been discussed <br />extensively, both by small workgroups and by the RAC. Despite this considerable amount of <br />discussion, and while there is more consensus on these proposals than for the employment path <br />and for some other elements of the rule, nevertheless there is not complete consensus on all <br />aspects of this path. <br />The department developed a spreadsheet-based model to test the various thresholds and ranges <br />contained in this sequence of rule. The model allowed variables to be adjusted and the effect on <br />the outcome (i.e., needed dwelling units and acres of residential land) to be observed. <br />Department staff ran the model for a variety of cities in various regions and size ranges. The <br />results of this modelling informed the department's recommendations regarding appropriate rule <br />requirements. <br />0030: Residential Land Need (Page 6) <br />General: This rule sets forth the process for determining the number of new residential units <br />needed by a city during the 14-year planning period. <br />Section (1) sets forth language directly from the statute summarizing a city's requirements for <br />determination of residential land need. <br />Section (2) requires a city to use the most recent final population forecast issued by Portland <br />State University as the population basis for the eventual land need determination. <br />Section (3): Before converting its projected 14-year population increase into residential dwelling <br />unit need, a city must subtract the number of persons expected to live in group quarters since <br />these persons will not require new residential dwelling units. The decennial United States Census <br />tabulates the number of residents in each city that live in group quarters, such as residential care <br />facilities, group homes, and correctional institutions. A city would be required to calculate the <br />percentage of its residents who lived in group quarters at the time of the last census, and then <br />carry forward that percentage to reduce the expected number of new residents that require new <br />dwelling units. <br />Section (4): To convert the projected 14-year population increase into an overall residential <br />dwelling unit need, the city would then divide the population growth by the number of persons <br />per household. The city must use the number of persons per household determined at the time of <br />the most recent decennial United States Census. <br />