Response to Completeness Review (4-24-14)

Rest Haven TPR Analysis (14-206) March 31, 2015 4.0FUTURE BACKGROUND TRAFFIC VOLUMES 4.1Traffic Growth The transportation planning rule analysis (TPRA) criteria includes analyzing the projected future year traffic conditions at the end of the planning horizon year identified in the current transportation system plan (TSP). The current City of Eugene TSP identifies the year 2027 as the planning horizon year, therefore, the year 2027 traffic conditions were forecast for the TPRA. Future year traffic conditions were projected by factoring EMME/2 model run data provided by the Lane Council of Governments (LCOG) that weUHSUHSDUHGIRUWKH(QYLVLRQ(XJHQH3URMHFW·V year 2035 traffic conditions for the PM peak hour turning movement traffic volumes in the study area. EMME/2 model run data and growth rate calculations are included as Appendix C. In some instances, the LCOG EMME/2 model run scenarios prepared for the Envision Eugene Project show a reduction in PM peak hour turning movement traffic volumes due to forecast future year traffic conditions and planned street improvement projects. The EMME/2 model data forecasts traffic volumes from projected employment and population demographics in transportation analysis zones (TAZs). The Rest Haven site is located within TAZ 424 in the LCOG models. A TAZ map is included with the growth data in Appendix C. The LCOG year 2035 EMME/2 models include land use assumptions that include the Rest Haven site developed with approximately 102 single family residential units in the year 2035 model runs. The inclusion of residential development on the site represents nearly 50 percent of the projected growth in TAZ 424. The EMME/2 models include 328 single family and 123 multi-family (including duplexes) dwelling units for a total of 451 dwelling units and 53 employees for base year 2011 traffic conditions in TAZ 424. The forecast year 2035 model run includes 381 single family and 284 multi-family dwelling units (including duplexes) for a total of 665 dwelling units and 61 employees in TAZ 424. Even though background growth and forecast traffic data accounts for residential development on the site in the EMME/2 models, the projected trip generation from the site was added to forecast background traffic conditions for a conservative analysis, as will be shown later. To calculate growth rates to apply to collected turning movement traffic counts to produce future year traffic volume forecasts, the difference between year 2011 EMME/2 base year model data turning movement traffic volumes and year 2035 future year model run data were factored for 24 years to determine an average annual growth rate (AAGR) at each turning movement, then adjusted for 12 years of growth from the year of collected traffic counts (2015) to the year 2027 planning horizon. The AAGR was then applied to collected traffic count data and balanced where appropriate. At the intersection of Willamette/Donald Street, the EMME/2 model data did not include the westbound approach at E. 32nd Ave, therefore; the average intersection growth rate was calculated from the total of other approaches and applied to counted inflows and outflows to calculate turning movements to/from the westbound approach. The EMME/2 data received for the intersection of E. 33 Ave at Willamette Street did not include PM peak 1-hour model runs, rd but did include daily link approach inflows and outflows on all approaches, therefore; the turning movement inflows and outflows were determined based on outflow proportions and a growth rate was calculated and applied appropriately to the traffic count volumes. The growth rates calculated from LCOG's Envision Eugene project model runs are shown on Figure 3. The balanced planning horizon year background traffic volumes are shown on Figure 4. 8 © Branch Engineering, Inc.